The defection of Albay Governor Joey Salceda to his seatmate Noynoy Aquino means Noynoy will be getting the same advice given to Joey's teacher, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Given the closeness of the two and their shared experiences, Noynoy is expected to follow that advice. The anticipated result as per Joey Salceda's email to The Manila Times columnist Tony Lopez is ''...An Aquino presidency would have the highest statistical probability of triggering a significant increase in the investment rate from the current 15 percent...or almost P642B in incremental investments.''
I doubt whether that will happen. With the recurring conflicts we are witnessing in the Noynoy campaign as diverse groups jockey for supremacy, we can predict a period of intense infighting that will stall the Noynoy presidency in the same way that the goodwill generated by EDSA 1 was wasted as advisers fought to get the ear of then president Cory. With strong willed personalities like Mar Roxas and his traditional Liberal party stalwarts; Uncle Peping Cojuangco and senior relatives who organized a dinner for Noynoy last May 9 with 1,000 guests like former senators Nikki Coseteng and Freddie Webb and former congresswoman Lorna Verano Yap; former GMA Cabinet members led by Nonong Cruz of the Villaraza Law firm, GMA and Mike Arroyo's lawyers for the most part of their reign; the impassioned civil society leaders who turned their backs on Gloria Macapagal Arroyo after enjoying some largess courtesy of the Peace bonds; and the younger relatives led by Kris Aquino, the investors will have to wait for ''the dust to settle'' before bringing their funds in.
There will also be the expected ''rigodon'' in government positions in a roller coaster cycle of power and influence as we saw in the earlier years of the Cory administration with incumbents more focused on retaining their positions than planning and implementing programs for the poor Filipinos. Or we will see the spectacle of conflicting policy positions taken by different departments in the absence of a strong, capable president, who commands respect because of his work ethic, personal accomplishments, and capability to build on the blessings bestowed upon him. Investors will sit it out until they see the dominant policy thrusts of the administration and know that those who wield power are there to stay.
The promise of Noynoy Aquino to create a commission to run after the Arroyo administration and cohorts caters to the public's strong disapproval of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her kin. However, it brings back memories of the Presidential Commission on Good Government's early years of lost evidence, selective sequestration, negotiated deals, etc. while serving to cover the misdeeds of the new officials busy taking advantage of their new found power. Maybe the new group will not be too greedy because a number of them are recruits from the GMA administration where they had enough time to amass fortunes. A better approach will be to use the justice system, which will deliver once it sees the firm hand of a politically experienced president. Investors will be reassured that existing democratic institutions will be strengthened rather than replaced by ''adhoc'' agencies.
Unfortunately, Noynoy is still a promise while we see the strength and capacity to make decisions and command respect from such presidential candidates as Gibo Teodoro, Manny Villar, Dick Gordon and Eddie Villanueva. Maybe what draws the recent defectors to Noynoy's camp is that they see him as a president whom they can easily sway.
These backers will avoid presidential candidates who are their own men.
For the economy to surge forward after the May elections, we need a president who can lead the way rather than one who will abdicate power to those around him while enjoying the privileges of the position.
One who through the years has shown an inability to make a name for oneself is not the president who will make the economy move forward.
Business Bits. BIR Commissioner Joel Tan Torres should be commended for his latest plan to create ''industry champions'' to improve voluntary tax compliance and enhance BIR's enforcement capability.
Together with Project SanTAX Clause, Project Rest in Peace and the 5 percent tax on campaign expenses, this move should add substantially to the government coffers.
