MANILA, Philippines - With the help of old friends, such as SWS and Pulse Asia, it appears that it's all systems go for 2011 with President Benigno Simeon Aquino III leading the pack horses to economic sustainability in this new decade.
So it seems?
On the upside, there is every reason to be optimistic and sanguine with the economic prospects in 2011.
On the macro level, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is optimistically projected at 5 percent to 6 percent, which could go higher if one factors in the foreign exchange remittances of the overseas workers, modest exports, foreign investments, tourism revenues, BPO (business process outsourcing), and foreign borrowings which comprise the GNP (Gross National Product).
Though 2010 was a tricky and challenging year for monetary management, and always vulnerable to external shocks, Central Bank Governor Amando Tetangco was happy to note that "the current monetary policy settings represent a sound policy balance, that is supportive of both inflation control and economic expansion."
This economic equilibrium thrust resulted in record $60-billion GIR (Gross International Reserves), stable R44:$1 exchange rate, inflation averaging 3.6 percent for the year and projected to average 2.35 percent in 2011, and robust external payments position as capital and venture funds continue to flow out from mature economies, like the United States, to emerging Asian markets, including the Philippines, which drove the equities market to post a record high of 4,413 points in November.
On the other hand, the downside and damper to the positive economic indicators will depend and will revolve around the leadership, work ethics, judgment calls, and aberrational behaviour of President Benigno S. Aquino III.
While President Aquino's trust rating seems impregnable and he continues to be an object of curiosity, a series of blunders, such as, the Luneta hostage-taking fiasco, a still-born Truth Commission, the indecision on GMA's "midnight appointees," and the President's apparent lack of concentration on his job, will eventually undermine his credibility, and his competence to reign and govern will start being questioned.
In the meantime, structural unemployment and underemployment remain high; the international price of crude oil has breached $91 per barrel, and counting; the price of domestic sugar is abnormally high; additional rice imports are expected; and the country is importing nearly everything.
Moreover, there is an imminent energy shortage, burgeoning population growth, rampant smuggling, persistent communist insurgency, growing jihadist Muslim insurgency, malnutrition, corruption, and criminality.
This is the flipside of the coin that can instantly pull down the popularity of President Aquino into a downward spiral of no return.
The long and short of it is LEADERSHIP.
Thus far, President Benigno Aquino has not shown the leadership qualities that the people are hoping for and expecting from him.
When all is said and done, all the hoopla, hype, and paeans cannot substitute for leadership, political courage, conviction, maturity, and intellect.
For without leadership, everything else is "sic transit Gloria mundi," and without vision, a nation is doomed.
You be the judge. (For comments and views, please e-mail: chaff_fromthegrain@yahoo.com.ph)
