MANILA, Philippines - The earthquake-tsunami in Japan, the worst in recorded history, showed us how lives can take a sudden turn, and in this case, in two and a half minutes. This tragedy not only provides many lessons but is a reminder that we must take disaster preparedness very seriously. The country is part of the Pacific "rim of fire" which makes it vulnerable to earthquakes and volcanic activities.
It's been 36 hours at this time of writing, and it's only now that we are beginning to have a more accurate picture of the most horrifying event that hit Japan since World War II. While the official count in loss of human lives is almost about 2,000, analysts estimate that it can rise to about 10,000. This does not include the large number who had been injured and traumatized as well as almost half of the total number of residents of Sendai and those near the nuclear plants who are now threatened with nuclear meltdown. We understand that some of the advocates of nuclear energy are about to reverse their stand. It will be remembered that the bill to revive our mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant has been recently re-filed. With the recent experience, it would be foolhardy to be taking such a step. We will just have to work harder in finding safer alternative energy resources.
How vulnerable are we to earthquakes and tsunamis? Many are aware of the so-called Marikina Fault. Geologists and urban planners continue to remind us of the implications should the Big One finally come. I am re-reading an assessment done sometime ago which is not known by many because the report has not been publicly disseminated. This is a Vulnerability Analysis sent to both Marietta Goco and myself by a former UN expert, Jean Paul Chardin, who had been working on disaster prevention for 25 years. A commissioned study done under the UN Disaster Coordinator or UNDRO for inclusion in the urban master plan of Metro Manila under the Human Settlements Commission, it contains a composite risk map of vulnerable areas in Metro Manila. At a recent lunch, Jean Paul who is married to a Filipina, informed us that in 1977, he handed the report personally to Mrs. Imelda Marcos in her then capacity as Governor of Metro Manila. He writes in his cover note for the Report: "In spite of the fact that this report - which was for all practical purposes ignored - has been written more than thirty years ago, it remains fully valid. The recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, and, just a few days ago, in New Zealand remind us that a severe earthquake is probably long overdue in the Philippines and particularly in Manila. The report is written in layman's language and, therefore, easy to read."
The map summarizes for each square of one square kilometer of the metropolitan area the kind of buildings which can be allowed and those which should be disallowed, based on the "composite disaster risk" picture of the area. In the case of Manila, it is a compounded risk due to earthquakes, floods, and high-velocity winds. The highest risk areas are the reclaimed area, the estuary of the Pasig River, and parts of the Marikina Valley. These should be reserved for open space and, ideally, should have no structures.
Jean Paul continues: "If the earthquake of the magnitude of the one which struck Chile recently should occur in Manila, it would surpass by far the death toll and damage of the Haiti earthquake of last year." Should the recent earthquake in Japan happen here.
I dread to think of the consequences in terms of human lives and property. If Japan with its wealth, discipline, and standards in ensuring structural quality of its buildings, suffered considerable devastation, how much more with a developing country like ours which does not have the necessary technology and resources to cope with a high intensity earthquake?
Fortunately, this assessment study showed that the threat from a tsunami is minimal because "the configuration of Manila Bay would have an inhibiting effect on the height and energy of a possible tsunami wave." Like what similar studies have shown, the vulnerability of Metro Manila to floods remains very high. Jean Paul who expressed willingness to provide advice if needed, will be here until April 15, after which he returns to Switzerland where he now resides My e-mail is florbraid@yahoo.com.
